The Ringer’s NBA Playoff and Lottery Odds Engine

Welcome to The ringtone‘s NBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point difference — a historically strong predictor of future success — with adjustments for individual folds like injuries and schedules, the odds engine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of making the playoffs and the win title. The odds engine will be updated every day until a champion is crowned. So keep an eye out in the coming months as the league’s best teams compete for a title.

Play-in game odds

favourite opportunities outsider opportunities Expected Margin
favourite opportunities outsider opportunities Expected Margin
hawks 58% hornets 42% Falcon at 3
pelicans 52% spores 48% Pelicans by 0.5

Eastern Conference Friday Scenarios

scenario favourite opportunities outsider opportunities Expected Margin
scenario favourite opportunities outsider opportunities Expected Margin
When the Hawks win hawks 51% Cavaliers 49% toss up
When the Hornets win Cavaliers 53% hornets 47% Cavaliers from the 1

Western Conference Friday Scenarios

scenario favourite opportunities outsider opportunities Expected Margin
scenario favourite opportunities outsider opportunities Expected Margin
When the pelicans win clippers 58% pelicans 42% clipper of 3
When the Spurs win clippers 55% spores 45% Clippers up to 1.5

We simulate the off-season every day. This chart shows each team’s probability of qualifying for the playoffs and winning the 2021-22 title.

Post-season odds

team endgames title
team endgames title
Celts 100% 31%
to sunbathe 100% 28%
heat 100% 9%
warrior 100% 9%
grizzlies 100% 8th%
jazz 100% 8th%
dollar 100% 2%
76er 100% 2%
outsider 100% 1%
birds of prey 100% 1%
nuggets 100% 1%
wood wolves 100% 1%
cops 100% <1%
nets 100% <1%
clippers 60% <1%
Cavaliers 52% <1%
hawks 30% <1%
spores 21% <1%
pelicans 19% <1%
hornets 18% <1%

How likely is it that your favorite team will win in a sweep? What about losing in five, or winning in six, or all the way to a nerve-wracking game of 7? These charts show the odds for each possible outcome in each series.

Celtics vs Nets

result opportunities
result opportunities
Celtics in 4th 19%
Celts in the 5th 27%
Celtics in 6th 19%
Celts in the 7th 17%
networks in the 4th 1%
nets in the 5th 4%
Nets in the 6th 7%
Nets in the 7th 5%

Dollars vs Bulls

result opportunities
result opportunities
dollars in 4 18%
dollars in 5 25%
dollars in 6 20%
dollars in 7 16%
Bulls in the 4th 2%
Bulls in the 5th 4%
Bulls in the 6th 8th%
Bulls in the 7th 8th%

76ers versus Raptors

result opportunities
result opportunities
76 in the 4th 6%
76 in the 5th 13%
76s in 6 15%
76s in 7 18%
Birds of prey in the 4th 7%
Birds of prey in the 5th 11%
Birds of prey in the 6th 17%
Birds of prey in the 7th 14%

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves

result opportunities
result opportunities
Grizzlies in the 4th 11%
Grizzlies in the 5th 21%
Grizzlies in 6th 20%
Grizzlies in 7th 18%
Timber wolves in the 4th 4%
Timber wolves in the 5th 6%
Timber wolves in the 6th 10%
Timberwolves in the 7th 11%

Warriors vs Nuggets

result opportunities
result opportunities
warrior in the 4th 12%
warrior in the 5th 24%
warrior in the 6th 20%
warrior in the 7th 19%
Nuggets in the 4th 2%
nuggets in 5 4%
nuggets in 6 8th%
nuggets in 7 10%

Mavericks vs Jazz

result opportunities
result opportunities
misfits in the 4th 2%
misfits in the 5 8th%
misfits in the 6th 8th%
misfits in the 7th 14%
Jazz in the 4th 11%
Jazz in the 5th 18%
Jazz in the 6th 22%
Jazz in the 7th 16%

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