Stick with Patrick Cantlay after underperforming Saturday

2022 RBC Heritage Odds

golfer opportunities
Patrick Cantley +350
Shane Lowry +350
Harold Varner III +500
Eric van Rooyen +650
Matt Kuchar +1400
Aaron Wise +1600
Jordan Spieth +1600
Sepp Straka +1800
Hudson Swafford +2200
Billy Horschel +2500
Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Joel Dahmen +4000
Corey Conners +5000
Joaquin Niemann +6000
Cameron Young +6600
Maverick McNealy +6600
Cameron Tringale +8000
Myth Guillermo Pereira +8000
Ian Poulter +10000
Adam Swenson +12500
Im Sung-jae +12500
Kevin Well +12500
Robert Streb +12500
Alexander Noren +15000
Matthew NeSmith +20000
Luke Glover +25000
Troy Merritt +25000
Adam Hadwin +40000
Jason Kokrak +40000
Si Woo Kim +40000
Collin Morikawa +50000
Patton Kizzire +50000
Joseph Bramlett +50000

*Odds via PointsBet, as of Saturday at 22:00 ET.

All took advantage of Saturday’s better scoring conditions in Harbor Town – well, all but the last pairing.

The course played more than two strokes under par that day, but the leaders couldn’t tell. Last start time combined to shoot only 1-under that day.

Harold Varner III was the player who made the most use of the scoring conditions and took the lead in the finals with an 8-under-63. He will be aiming for his first PGA TOUR win on Sunday after struggling to finish over the weekend in the past.

Shane Lowry will play alongside HV3 as he looks to capitalize on his great play earlier in the year, but world No. 6 Patrick Cantlay will also be a factor in the penultimate fixture. They are joined by the likes of Jordan Spieth and Billy Horschel in the top 10, all within three shots back into Sunday’s finals.

It’s going to be a fantastic final round from Hilton Head Island and the vast nature should set us up for some round 4 betting opportunities.

Stroke gained explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans much more detail about how a golfer actually played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points collected, the TOUR calculates how many strokes, on average, it takes a player to put the ball in the hole from any distance and situation. If a player beats these averages, he wins shots on the field.

Every golf situation is different. Strokes Gained measures how players behave in relation to the situation.

In this article we will look at a variety of won strokes:

  • Shots Achieved: Off-the-tee
  • Strikes Won: Approach
  • Increased shots: Around the green
  • Stroke achieved: putting
  • Shots Received: Ball-Striking (that’s Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Shots Received: Tee-to-Green (that’s Ball-Strike + Around-the-Green)

In general, ball strike and tee-to-green are the most stable over the long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find benefits of live betting by identifying golfers who hit the ball well but just can’t make putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers can drop forward.

3 golfers to buy in round 4

Things didn’t go the way I expected on Saturday – quite frankly, they went exactly the opposite. Patrick Cantley did not use the good scoring conditions in his third round and let many other players back into the tournament. However, I am not wavering in my prediction that he will be the 2022 RBC Heritage Champion on Sunday.

Cantlay has the experience factor of being in this position, right alongside Lowry. Those would be the two players who lead the way for me, just as they did earlier in the week.

My pick, however, is Cantlay, who I think will recover from Saturday’s lackluster round, after which he’s still just a shot away from the lead. He’s my pick to win and although he didn’t make me look good on Saturday he just gave us better chances for Sunday where I still see the same result.

You can get Cantlay at +350 at BetMGM or PointsBet after he was around +150 on Saturday.

Every time I think Jordan Spieth ready to fight again he seems to be making a silly mistake that is changing my perception of him in the tournament. He did it again on Saturday after horseshoeing a putt from just about a foot away to drop it to 8-under for the week.

Instead of going just two shots back into Sunday he’s now three and that’ll see him through the last lap.

I’m still on board with Spieth though as he’s really showing signs of getting his game back. He’s now leading the field in this week’s Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and if he can get that magical flatstick rolling, he’ll be a contender for the back nine on Sunday. I buy Spieth in all markets up to and including the win at +2000 on BetMGM.

Sunjae Im is quietly having a good week in Harbor Town after his top 10 finish at the Masters. He has yet to put everything together to have his name in the competition, but his solid play throughout the tournament has earned him T22 on the week.

I’m always a player who gets my attention when he shows a little skill and consistency with his ball hits and he did that over three rounds at Harbor Town. He’s hitting more than one shot on every metric through 54 holes and I’ll be waiting for him to make the top 10 while also being a key piece for me in Sunday’s DFS.

3 golfers fade in Round 4

I’m a big fan of Harold Varner III as a player and the person he featured on TOUR. He has the talent to win this stage but hasn’t done it yet.

My concern for him on Sunday won’t be expressed in numbers but more in the difficulty of sleeping on a leash and winning with pressure shots. I’m showing HV3 because we’ve seen him struggle a lot at this point in the past and I’m just going to take a believe it when I see it attitude towards him.

Speaking of players struggling on Sundays on the TOUR, my next fade comes in the form of Tommy Fleetwood. He put together the second-best round of the day with a 7-under 64 on Saturday, but the way he pulled it off, coupled with his finals nerves, makes him a fade for me in the finals.

Fleetwood lost shots to the field with his irons on Saturday and needed the short game to save him. It did over and over again, but with the added pressure on Sunday, he’s not someone I can trust to stay near the front. He just can’t be the field average with his ball stroke and expect to be fighting for his first TOUR win.

i made my love Alex Noren very clear this year but the numbers don’t lie and they make him fade for the last round. The Swede lost shots against the field from tee to green and ball hit in round 3 but made up for it with more than two shots gained on the greens.

Noren needs to find his ball striking game to maintain his place in the top 25 on Sunday and the way he hit it off the tee has me concerned about his ability to hold that position.

dashes Get data for all players in round 3

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