2022 NBA Playoffs Betting Tips for Monday’s Game 2 Matchups

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What you need to know for Monday’s playoff games

Toronto lists Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr. and Thaddeus Young as doubtful about playing the 76ers on Monday. Lineup data with all three this season shows a potentially game-changing DFS performance from Pascal Siakam; He logged a whopping 10.7 more DraftKings points per 36 minutes in such scenarios. Siakam paced the Raptors with 92 touches in Saturday’s loss — 34 more than any other teammate. Not only is Siakam a building block for cash and tournament lineups, his assist prop of 5.5 stands out as he posted a team high of 14 potential assists on Saturday, while build duties only increase when Barnes is down.

Wingman becomes: Denver’s Will Barton led his team this season with 6.1 drives per game, but he almost doubled that rate with 11 in the series opener against the Warriors. Barton touched the ball 62 times on Saturday, eight times more than his season average. Not only does Barton enter today’s three-game table as an affordable DFS candidate to pair up with expensive superstars like Nikola Jokic, his rebounds and passing props are also proving attractive. The playmaker wing recorded 10 potential assists and 12 rebound chances, both significantly higher than its quotas this year.

We talk about Brunson: There’s no way to actually replace Luka Doncic’s influence, but Jalen Brunson is being asked to take his game to a new level with his Superstar teammate sidelined. With Doncic doubtful about playing Game 2 as he recovers from a calf injury, it’s helpful to point to Brunson’s role in the opening game, where he had 24 team-high shots in 40 minutes with a 34.5% utilization rate as at Luke. Which brings us to Brunson being a building block against Utah tonight, a team he’s averaged 25.5 points on 24.5 field goal attempts in his last two games without Luka for. Brunson had 14 rebound chances and 13 potential assists last Saturday, notable given his current rebounds (4.5) and assists (4.5).

– Jim McCormick

game of the night

Denver Nuggets with the Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco

Line: Warrior -7
money line: Warrior -300, Nuggets +240
In total: 224.5 points
BPI forecast sum: 225.1
BPI Profit %: Warrior (76.1%)

Key players excluded: Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., James Wiseman

Best Bet: Warrior -7. My biggest question for the Warriors going into the playoffs was if there could be any rust and/or chemistry issues due to all the injuries. Stephen Curry was the last to return, but Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson missed large chunks of games this season and rarely had a chance to play as a group alongside their new teammates. But their efforts on Saturday calmed those fears for me. When they’re all healthy and playing well, the Warriors have too much firepower on offense from too many different angles for the Nuggets’ almost purely Jokic-centric attack to match. — Andre’ Snellings

Best bet: Aaron Gordon on 23.5 points+assists+rebounds. Gordon’s poor performance in Game 1 was surprising considering how well he played at the close of the regular season. In his last five games, Gordon averaged 19.6 PPG, 3.0 APG, and 8.0 RPG. I expect his performance to improve in Game 2. — Eric Moody

Mine the rest of the slate

The Toronto Raptors at the Philadelphia 76ers
7:30 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia

Line: Sixes -6.5
money line: Sixes -280, Raptors +230
In total: 218.5 points
BPI forecast sum: 216.3
BPI Profit %: Sixes (79.4%)

Key players excluded: Charles Bassey; Barnes, Trent, Young are dubious

Best bet: 76ers -6.5. The Raptors looked outclassed by the 76ers in Game 1. Philadelphia executed its game plan perfectly, so it would be surprising if the Sixers changed it significantly. James Harden and Joel Embiid got a lot of attention from the Raptors defense, but Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris easily filled that gap. Most likely without Barnes and Young, Toronto’s prospects don’t look good Monday night. In Game 2 I see no reason to bet against the 76ers. — Moody

Best bet: Sixers over 112.5 points. Yes, Philadelphia fought offensively against Toronto in the teams’ regular-season meetings. Sure, the 76ers’ 131-point breakout on Saturday is a one-game sample. On the other hand, the 76ers had been averaging 117.8 points per 100 possessions since Harden’s game began, which ranks third-best in the league since late February. In 89 games against Toronto on Saturday, the Sixers had a 147.2 offensive rating, which ranks third-highest in 26-year history of play-by-day data. Sounds good. With Toronto likely missing two of its top defenders in Barnes and Trent, that team total seems achievable. — McCormick

Best bet: Siakam over 25.5 points (-115). Siakam has played well against the 76ers all season, averaging 30.3 PPG on 50.7% FG shooting in three regular-season matchups with 26 points being his worst game. He scored 24 points in the first game of the series, but that was as much a function of the blowout nature of the game as the 76ers stopping him (he shot 50% from the field). With there being some doubt as to whether Scottie Barnes (foot) will play Monday, the Raptors will be pinning their hopes of stealing a game in Philadelphia on Siakam having a big game. — Snellings

Utah Jazz with the Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas

Line: jazz 5
money line: Jazz – 210, Mavs +175
In total: 205 points
BPI forecast sum: 222.9
BPI Profit %: Mavs (59.8%)

Key players excluded: Tim Hardaway Jr., Frank Ntilikina, Udoka Azubuike, Trent Forrest; Doncic is doubtful

Best bet: Jazz -5. The only question for me is whether Doncic will play. If so, then that choice is moot and the line would shift significantly anyway. But Adrian Wojnarowski reports “significant concern” about the availability of Doncic’s Game 2, and if he’s seated I want the Jazz to come back again. They played relatively poorly in Game 1, got off to a slow start when Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert combined shots from the field for 10 of 30, and still managed to win by six points. I think that was the deep water mark against a Luka-less Mavs squad and if that’s the case again on Monday the Jazz should play better and win more convincingly. — Snellings

Best bet: Brunson over 4.5 assists. The Mavericks are likely to go a second straight game without Doncic. While it’s impossible to fully fill the void he left, I noticed in Game 1 that Brunson was trying too hard to be a playmaker and ended up with 24 field goal attempts. I imagine that in Game 2 he’s more of a moderator. Without Doncic, Brunson is averaging 7.5 assists per game this season. — Moody

Best bet: Dorian Finney-Smith over 13.5 points. Due to Doncic’s absence, Finney-Smith will continue to play difficult minutes for the Mavericks. Finney-Smith has averaged 10 FGA and 13 PPG in games that Doncic missed this season. The Mavericks need to involve him more offensively. This should happen in game 2. — Moody

Analytics Edge

BPI highest forecast totals

1. Golden State Warriors (116.6 points)
2. Dallas Mavericks (112.8 points)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (112.7 points)

BPI lowest projected totals

1. Toronto Raptors (103.6 points)
2. Denver Nuggets (108.5 points)
3. Utah Jazz (110.1 points)

Highest BPI Win Probability (Straight Up)

1. 76s (79.4%)
2. Warrior (76.1%)
3. Outsiders (59.8%)

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